The dividend discount model (DDM) is a method of valuing a company’s stock price based on the theory that its stock is worth the sum of all of its future dividend payments, discounted back to their present value. In other words, it is used to value stocks based on the net present value of the future dividends. The equation most widely used is called the Gordon growth model (GGM). It is named after Myron J. Gordon of the University of Toronto, who originally published it along with Eli Shapiro in 1956 and made reference to it in 1959. Their work borrowed heavily from the theoretical and mathematical ideas found in John Burr Williams 1938 book “The Theory of Investment Value.”
The dividend discount model is closely related to both discounted earnings and discounted cashflow models. In either of the latter two, the value of a company is based on how much money is made by the company. For example, if a company consistently paid out 50% of earnings as dividends, then the discounted dividends would be worth 50% of the discounted earnings. Also, in the dividend discount model, a company that does not pay dividends is worth nothing.
- ^Investopedia – Digging Into The Dividend Discount Model
- ^Gordon, M.J and Eli Shapiro (1956) “Capital Equipment Analysis: The Required Rate of Profit,” Management Science, 3,(1) (October 1956) 102-110. Reprinted in Management of Corporate Capital, Glencoe, Ill.: Free Press of, 1959.
- ^Gordon, Myron J. (1959). “Dividends, Earnings and Stock Prices”. Review of Economics and Statistics. The MIT Press. 41 (2): 99–105. doi:10.2307/1927792. JSTOR 1927792.
- ^Spreadsheet for variable inputs to Gordon Model
Ofer Abarbanel is a 25 year securities lending broker and expert who has advised many Israeli regulators, among them the Israel Tax Authority, with respect to stock loans, repurchase agreements and credit derivatives. Founder of TBIL.co STATX Fund.